Why and how the Jubilee will disintegrate

I will start by confessing that I’m one avid movie fan and not even Hollywood and bollywood combined can quench my thirst for a good story. One of my favorite all time movies is “Lord of the Rings” in a nut shell the story line is about a special ring whose holder suddenly gets supernatural powers and it is for this reason that it must be kept away from evil men who can use it for their evil schemes. There are many villains in the movie who must not get a hold of the ring but besides them are good people who believe they want the ring so they can do good but only until they get a hold of it do they realize what they are really capable of, perhaps worse than the evil men. To cut a long story short, this analogy reminds me of the coveted “house on the hill” which aptly represents the ring, the number of evil men after it are many and so are some good ones, at least on the surface. The desire to be the ring holder is very strong beyond imagination and when anyone gets close to getting it, that desire brings out the worst in the best of men.

The jubilee alliance was built on quicksand and if what we read in the daily news is anything to go by then it will surely crumble before March 4th 2013.Uhuru Kenyatta might have very well out of desperation and desire to meet the dec 4th deadline accepted to concede the coveted seat to his peer and DPM counterpart Musalia Mudadavadi but after sleeping on it and consulting widely he realized that this thing is too good to just throw in the towel. That my friends is the reason why the NDC was cancelled and no amount of spin can change that fact.UK is not stupid, ill give him that; he knows darn well that once he is seen to cower from the two horse race then his political career will be over like salt in water .He knows that he will be reduced to contest a mere MP's seat after posturing like the president in waiting for the last 10 or so months. He knows that ambitious leaders in his back yard are baying for his political blood and pounce they will. I’m sure the good DPM also understands that TNA which is barely 1year old will be just another one of the many political parties in
In Central his clout will be diminished because settling for a position that is not even guaranteed like that of a leader of majority is too risky ,besides this is a man who was once Leader of opposition, a position that at one time was held by none other than the great general himself . Once Uhuru is out of the statehouse race TNA can no longer hope to win all parliamentary seats in Mt Kenya, parties like GNU and Mbas will have a field day receiving disgruntled defectors from TNA .Not having a presidential candidate will also result in a very low voter turnout in this region.Mr Kenyatta understands this facts and that is why we should expect a 360 degree about turn come “super” Tuesday.

Mr “Johhny come late” aka Mudavadi ,can not just move in to a homestead that has already been built and expect to sleep in the master bedroom with the bride or can he? Uhuruto have invested billions of shillings and plenty of man hours in this thing and they are not about to incur major losses, both are astute businessmen. My hunch is these two not-so gentle men would rather loose the executive wing of government all-together but maintain a strong footing in parliament than risk loosing both. Long knives are already sharpened and ready to finish Mr. Kenyatta, politically that is , as soon as he “steps down” from the battle. Another question is can Musalia have the international clout and acumen to bring the ICC cases back to Kenya especially having a deputy who is a suspect in the same court?

Why Mudavadi can not beat Uhuru in a free Nomination Process.

The season of serious politico is here and the gloves are officially off ,foes have embraced each other in the un-holiest of unions and some are running around like headless chicken. Alliance is the new catch phrase and if I count the number of times I have heard that word and someone offered me a penny for every instance, I would probably have retired by now. Back to matters politics ,we now know that the two horse race that RAO spoke of is coming to pass and the major antagonists are jubilee alliance and the CORD .One Mr Musalia Mudavadi has been promised a free pass nomination or so he thinks ,if this happens then we will have another go-lucky, easy going, likable uncle sort of a fence sitting president .The man has never started anything on his own ,he first jumped in to politics when he was elected in mlolongo elections unopposed riding on the crest of his late father ,appointed as minister at a mere twenty seven he has no public service record to write home about.Some have opined that there will be free and fair nominations in the jubilee alliance to pick the flag bearer and Mudavadis men would like us to believe that he can actually beat UK fair and square. I'm not a fan of math but Mudavadi does not  have the numbers to beat Uhuru ,it is that simple .Look at the regional point men and women in the alliance and ask your self who are they aligned with?,delegates come to Kasarani (read-Kisirani) to endorse decisions that have already been made ,money is poured before they board that bus to Nairobi and they understand the consequences of voting against the party owners wishes. For starters the largest number of delegates will be from RV which which will carry 720 delegates(each party 20 delegates from 12counties) ,next will be NE with 420 ,then Eastern ,Central and Nyanza will tie at 360 each ,then Western and Coast at 300each and lastly Nairobi at 20.Care fully look at this numbers and evaluate Mudavadi and UK then analyze how much work/investment   they have put to popularize themselves in these counties or regions ,look at the Point-men/women and who they are likely to align with because let us face it this is a matter of “money or the box?”.

In a truly free and fair nomination Musalia stands a snowball chance in hell to beat UK and the only way he can become the jubilee flag bearer is by UK handing it to him in a silver platter(something he is no stranger to).By doing this CORD will get a life line and declare him a state house project until that tag sticks and we all know how projects end if 2002 is anything to go by.On the flip side if UK’s arrogance prevails then the ICC stick will be ready to subdue him back to farming or whatever it is he likes to do in Gatundu. Either way the Jubilee nomination goes on the 18 of Dec,CORD will find a strong message to convince Kenyans why not to Vote for jubilee puppets or crimes against humanity suspects.Lastly if Mudavadi carries the day and bags the jubilee flag then naturally the big question will not be how he won but rather , whose project is he? , Uhuru’s project? Or Kibaki’s Project? That will be the billion dollar question.

WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE!, OF UHURUTO ALLAINCE

I was watching a documentary on how crocodiles feed and  they do that  by opening their mouths for a long time and allowing all manner of non-suspecting insects to be attracted by the foul smell to settle in their mouths then they violently shut their mouth and feed on their prey. This analogy made me think of Uhuru and Ruto because this is exactly what they are doing .They have had their mouths wide open since they made that journey from the Hague and will soon shut their big foul mouths and consume us all. I am shocked at how the fate of 40m people can literally hang on the backs of two crimes against humanity suspects.It is so ironical that only yesterday an impeccable Kenyan by the name of PK he of tunawesmake fame offered himself for the leadership of this country but alas our tribal nature will hear none of it.


It is time Kenyans did some serious soul searching and ask themselves some very pertinent questions. First is as to whether we really want to turn our country in to a pariah state like Sudan or Somalia. We must remember that by electing these two ICC suspects as president and deputy we will become isolated in this ever shrinking global village. Many have been deluded to think that Kenya can look east and forget the west but a critical look at this fallacy will paint a very negative picture if we were to dismember relations with the west. Let us look at a few myths about the so called China influence , first of all how much  Kenyan goods do the Chinese actually buy compared to the west? ,secondly how many Chinese tourists visit Kenya compared to the western ones? and lastly how many Kenyans live freely in china and have been accepted as dual citizens in there compared to the west?. China has in the recent past demonstrated itself to be a major economic force but devoid of counterfeit products, economic espionage and currency manipulation its economy will collapse. Ask your self who is the number one consumer of Chinese goods in the world? ,which companies and corporations moved there for cheap labor and other strategic reasons? ,who’s population is uncontrollable that they have to send their citizens to Africa to roast maize and do manual labor?

America has been through some difficult times yes and they have realized that bringing back jobs to their shores is healthier for their economy and so is buying made in America ,these type of policies will soon slow china's growth  and the Chinese must always  remember  that there is cheap labor across the US border in south American countries ,on this front immigration issues will be buffered and so will the cost of production. China may be flourishing economically but poverty and low living standards is still the norm, democracy and human rights are still at an all time low, is this the big brother we should emulate, where dictators do as they please trampling on human rights as if there are no laws? ,I do not think so. Chinese international policy is see no evil , hear no evil ,say no evil ,so even if our elected leaders decide to eat babies for breakfast China will feel no obligation to speak for the vulnerable besides its might ,to me that is the height of cowardice.

In a nutshell, we can not have a president and his deputy who are  suspects of crimes against humanity .The judiciary should call their bluff by barring them from running for office and let the clean candidates compete fairly and may the best man or woman win. Alternatively in the event that the Kenyan courts decide otherwise then let us send a very clear message to William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta that we are not pawns in their defense strategy for their cases at the Hague. Kenya is bigger than two men who are drank on power and hubris, God help Kenya! 

Exposed –How Uhuru will match to statehouse come 2013

In the octane high politics that is the succession of Kibaki, we can now categorically reveal the big plan by GEMA to keep the coveted seat north of river Chania.The reason why you see Jirongo attracting all manner of vitriol is because whatever he is saying has a lot of truth in it, people like Musalia and Ruto are too naïve to see that they are being played. The plan is very simple but has to be executed with precision which  means zero leakage and that is why people like Mutula and Jirongo lives have now been threatened ,wonder why a helicopter that only few weeks prior to the Saitoti /Ojode crash was flown all the way from south Africa could suddenly have a malfunction? think again. The plan goes like this ,and it is already in play ,1-make sure all the major regions ,numerically off course, have a presidential candidate ,when the voter register is complete we all know that the mt Kenya region will have the highest registered voters and they have the money to encourage the highest voter turnout as well .Part two of the plan is the most sinister and it is to identify a sober mp from western or rv pay him out to bring to the house a miscellaneous bill that will abolish the 51% rule ,get it passed in a rushed “burn the midnight oil” session after which the president will duly sign it into law ,before the busy bodies aka civil society rush to court ,the courts will already be overwhelmed by court cases and the elections will go on and uhuru will win with slightly below 30% followed by mudavadi’s below 20% in that order. It is time to stay vigilante and ensure that this masters of impunity are defeated.Lastly the grenade attacks that have frequently taken place have nothing to do with alshabab ,these are mere smoke screens to create anxiety so that the laid out plans can be executed behind the smoke screen ,there isn’t a better time to do such things than when the public is gripped with fear and anxiety.

Yours truly

mkenyadamu

Why Ruto and Uhuru should be on the 2012 ballot

A lot has been said on whether the two ICC suspects should be constitutionally allowed to run for the Kenyan presidency in the forth coming elections ,I will give my opinion and I must come clean and say that it is purely out of strategic reasons and not for neither love nor hate of the two men. For starters I think Rift valley and central votes if put in one basket will be unbeatable even without the ICC debacle ,add the sexiness of the ICC ruling and these two communities will have more reason to rally behind the two alleged suspects and give them another 5 year lease of holding Kenya hostage .Whoever said that there are no permanent foes in politics was absolutely right, just imagine Ruto is accused of orchestrating the killing of innocent Kikuyu in Rift valley and Uhuru of doing the same to Kalenjins makes it astounding that now their supporters see in them collective “heroes” aptly named UHURUTO ,I ask my self heroes for what?, for killing innocent people? ,if Ruto was man enough he should have organized militia to attack security personnel and overturn the govt and uhuru on the other hand should have persuaded Kibaki to engage legal means in the name of Kenya army to secure the country ,attacking innocent unarmed civilians is the lowest low of cowardice, we wouldn’t have been in ICC if the latter was the scenario ,it would have been similar to when the KAF secured mt elgon area by flushing out SLDF.

Now back to the reason why I believe we need to gamble by letting these two ran for presidency ,first it will be the best way to keep them out of elective politics ,the constitution is very clear that when you run for president it disqualifies you for running concurrently for any other elective seats ,so they loose the presidency and we buy five years of not having to listen to their war cries.Second reason is quite obvious ,deny them the opportunity and they will have two grievances against their perceived enemies both real and imagined, one will be the ICC and second they will claim that someone has manipulated the constitution to lock them out of the race ,this will be potent political fodder for their naïve supporters and everyone knows these two are masters of the propaganda. They will hire the best spin doctors and we are already seeing them in numerous media outlets spewing their ill informed half-truths and disinformation,do i hear Mutahi Ngunyi?. By the end of it all they will not be in state house themselves but will have whoever they anoint deep in there pockets just like they have their communities. In the event that this unfortunate event happens then the country will still be under the tight grip of these two alleged war lords ,they will in total disregard of the new dispensation be rewarded with plum cabinet positions and impunity will “endelea”.

However if these two are on separate tickets then they can split the central Kenya / Rift valley votes and consequently loose honorably and remain silent until 2017;that will give us enough time to fully implement the constitution to a point that even if one of them is president in 2017 his hands will be tied by the law and order of constitutionalism. An opportunity has presented itself for the Progressive candidates to play realpolitik and seize the window of opportunity ,it does not knock twice-that is-if they pull together, and let Kenya have a truly new beginning ,are the progressives like ,Martha ,Peter K,Musyimi and ,Ole Kiyapi listening ?

KIbaki has already endorsed Raila

In his typical style Kibaki has already endorsed his co-principal aka RAO without as much as moving his lips, sounds crazy huh?My hypothesis is based on the fact that Kibaki is not one who speaks alot unless it is absolutely necessary or it involves marital matters such as denying a concubine, but that’s a story for another day.Being the proud man that he is I’m sure Tinga must have painstakingly persuaded him to rudisha mkono in a conversation that went something like this,RAO”mbona wewe apana weza sema mimi tosa kama vile nili kufanyia 2002?” then gen Kibs says “wewe wacha ,kwani uri sema tosha dio mimi ni seme wewe tosha au ni kwa sababu urijua huwezi pata ,bure tu” ,RAO” lakini kama si mimi si Ouru angekua ana lala state house?” gen Kibs “ok ok nta sema wewe tosha lakini sita sema kwa maneno , kitu nta fanya nta kataa kumu support kijana wa sigara alafu wewe uta pata easy time au sio?” RAO “sawa hio pana mbaya ,kwa hivyo kwa kuto sema uhuru tosha una maanisha mimi tosha si ndio?” Gen Kibs “si semi kitu ,had you been to makerere and London school of business haunge uliza hio” LOL.

I DARE SAY TUJU STONED HIMSELF IN KISUMU

I’m sick and tired of hearing everybody generalize luo’s as nothing but stone throwers after the Kisumu incident involving Hon Raphael Tuju last week. The main question I ask myself and others is who is the single most beneficiary of this incident? Politically off course. If your answer is Tuju then naturally whoever stands to benefits most must be the one who organized youths to pelt his convoy with rocks, after all a few broken auto glass is pocket change to such a wealthy man. Raila isn’t going to get any political mileage by instructing youths to stone his opponent ,as many have noticed by now he is slowly metamorphosing to cast an image of a national leader and is reaching out to other communities which were considered hostile to ODM ,to organize such a silly incident will not make any sense especially when the stakes are so high.Tuju on the other hand who until last week was not featuring any where in the 2012 political talk has just gained tonnes of media coverage by this one incident. Coming from a mainstream media back ground you must agree that his was a genius strategy to get the nation to notice him and talk about him hence becoming relevant, remember it was alleged that Mwau shot at his own car and also that someone planted a fake grenade at his office,we must always remember that a politician is a politician no matter how savvy or suave. Another angle could be Raila phobic’s on the other side could have easily paid a few idle youth to attack Tuju's convoy just so they can blame it on ODM ,after all they have promised to use “all means necessary “ to cut Tinga to size. The clips that are all over the internet clearly show that those who walked with and listened to Tuju out numbered the stone throwers ,so majority of kisumu residents can be said to be tolerant and open mined.