Why Mudavadi can not beat Uhuru in a free Nomination Process.

The season of serious politico is here and the gloves are officially off ,foes have embraced each other in the un-holiest of unions and some are running around like headless chicken. Alliance is the new catch phrase and if I count the number of times I have heard that word and someone offered me a penny for every instance, I would probably have retired by now. Back to matters politics ,we now know that the two horse race that RAO spoke of is coming to pass and the major antagonists are jubilee alliance and the CORD .One Mr Musalia Mudavadi has been promised a free pass nomination or so he thinks ,if this happens then we will have another go-lucky, easy going, likable uncle sort of a fence sitting president .The man has never started anything on his own ,he first jumped in to politics when he was elected in mlolongo elections unopposed riding on the crest of his late father ,appointed as minister at a mere twenty seven he has no public service record to write home about.Some have opined that there will be free and fair nominations in the jubilee alliance to pick the flag bearer and Mudavadis men would like us to believe that he can actually beat UK fair and square. I'm not a fan of math but Mudavadi does not  have the numbers to beat Uhuru ,it is that simple .Look at the regional point men and women in the alliance and ask your self who are they aligned with?,delegates come to Kasarani (read-Kisirani) to endorse decisions that have already been made ,money is poured before they board that bus to Nairobi and they understand the consequences of voting against the party owners wishes. For starters the largest number of delegates will be from RV which which will carry 720 delegates(each party 20 delegates from 12counties) ,next will be NE with 420 ,then Eastern ,Central and Nyanza will tie at 360 each ,then Western and Coast at 300each and lastly Nairobi at 20.Care fully look at this numbers and evaluate Mudavadi and UK then analyze how much work/investment   they have put to popularize themselves in these counties or regions ,look at the Point-men/women and who they are likely to align with because let us face it this is a matter of “money or the box?”.

In a truly free and fair nomination Musalia stands a snowball chance in hell to beat UK and the only way he can become the jubilee flag bearer is by UK handing it to him in a silver platter(something he is no stranger to).By doing this CORD will get a life line and declare him a state house project until that tag sticks and we all know how projects end if 2002 is anything to go by.On the flip side if UK’s arrogance prevails then the ICC stick will be ready to subdue him back to farming or whatever it is he likes to do in Gatundu. Either way the Jubilee nomination goes on the 18 of Dec,CORD will find a strong message to convince Kenyans why not to Vote for jubilee puppets or crimes against humanity suspects.Lastly if Mudavadi carries the day and bags the jubilee flag then naturally the big question will not be how he won but rather , whose project is he? , Uhuru’s project? Or Kibaki’s Project? That will be the billion dollar question.

WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE!, OF UHURUTO ALLAINCE

I was watching a documentary on how crocodiles feed and  they do that  by opening their mouths for a long time and allowing all manner of non-suspecting insects to be attracted by the foul smell to settle in their mouths then they violently shut their mouth and feed on their prey. This analogy made me think of Uhuru and Ruto because this is exactly what they are doing .They have had their mouths wide open since they made that journey from the Hague and will soon shut their big foul mouths and consume us all. I am shocked at how the fate of 40m people can literally hang on the backs of two crimes against humanity suspects.It is so ironical that only yesterday an impeccable Kenyan by the name of PK he of tunawesmake fame offered himself for the leadership of this country but alas our tribal nature will hear none of it.


It is time Kenyans did some serious soul searching and ask themselves some very pertinent questions. First is as to whether we really want to turn our country in to a pariah state like Sudan or Somalia. We must remember that by electing these two ICC suspects as president and deputy we will become isolated in this ever shrinking global village. Many have been deluded to think that Kenya can look east and forget the west but a critical look at this fallacy will paint a very negative picture if we were to dismember relations with the west. Let us look at a few myths about the so called China influence , first of all how much  Kenyan goods do the Chinese actually buy compared to the west? ,secondly how many Chinese tourists visit Kenya compared to the western ones? and lastly how many Kenyans live freely in china and have been accepted as dual citizens in there compared to the west?. China has in the recent past demonstrated itself to be a major economic force but devoid of counterfeit products, economic espionage and currency manipulation its economy will collapse. Ask your self who is the number one consumer of Chinese goods in the world? ,which companies and corporations moved there for cheap labor and other strategic reasons? ,who’s population is uncontrollable that they have to send their citizens to Africa to roast maize and do manual labor?

America has been through some difficult times yes and they have realized that bringing back jobs to their shores is healthier for their economy and so is buying made in America ,these type of policies will soon slow china's growth  and the Chinese must always  remember  that there is cheap labor across the US border in south American countries ,on this front immigration issues will be buffered and so will the cost of production. China may be flourishing economically but poverty and low living standards is still the norm, democracy and human rights are still at an all time low, is this the big brother we should emulate, where dictators do as they please trampling on human rights as if there are no laws? ,I do not think so. Chinese international policy is see no evil , hear no evil ,say no evil ,so even if our elected leaders decide to eat babies for breakfast China will feel no obligation to speak for the vulnerable besides its might ,to me that is the height of cowardice.

In a nutshell, we can not have a president and his deputy who are  suspects of crimes against humanity .The judiciary should call their bluff by barring them from running for office and let the clean candidates compete fairly and may the best man or woman win. Alternatively in the event that the Kenyan courts decide otherwise then let us send a very clear message to William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta that we are not pawns in their defense strategy for their cases at the Hague. Kenya is bigger than two men who are drank on power and hubris, God help Kenya! 

Why Ruto and Uhuru should be on the 2012 ballot

A lot has been said on whether the two ICC suspects should be constitutionally allowed to run for the Kenyan presidency in the forth coming elections ,I will give my opinion and I must come clean and say that it is purely out of strategic reasons and not for neither love nor hate of the two men. For starters I think Rift valley and central votes if put in one basket will be unbeatable even without the ICC debacle ,add the sexiness of the ICC ruling and these two communities will have more reason to rally behind the two alleged suspects and give them another 5 year lease of holding Kenya hostage .Whoever said that there are no permanent foes in politics was absolutely right, just imagine Ruto is accused of orchestrating the killing of innocent Kikuyu in Rift valley and Uhuru of doing the same to Kalenjins makes it astounding that now their supporters see in them collective “heroes” aptly named UHURUTO ,I ask my self heroes for what?, for killing innocent people? ,if Ruto was man enough he should have organized militia to attack security personnel and overturn the govt and uhuru on the other hand should have persuaded Kibaki to engage legal means in the name of Kenya army to secure the country ,attacking innocent unarmed civilians is the lowest low of cowardice, we wouldn’t have been in ICC if the latter was the scenario ,it would have been similar to when the KAF secured mt elgon area by flushing out SLDF.

Now back to the reason why I believe we need to gamble by letting these two ran for presidency ,first it will be the best way to keep them out of elective politics ,the constitution is very clear that when you run for president it disqualifies you for running concurrently for any other elective seats ,so they loose the presidency and we buy five years of not having to listen to their war cries.Second reason is quite obvious ,deny them the opportunity and they will have two grievances against their perceived enemies both real and imagined, one will be the ICC and second they will claim that someone has manipulated the constitution to lock them out of the race ,this will be potent political fodder for their naïve supporters and everyone knows these two are masters of the propaganda. They will hire the best spin doctors and we are already seeing them in numerous media outlets spewing their ill informed half-truths and disinformation,do i hear Mutahi Ngunyi?. By the end of it all they will not be in state house themselves but will have whoever they anoint deep in there pockets just like they have their communities. In the event that this unfortunate event happens then the country will still be under the tight grip of these two alleged war lords ,they will in total disregard of the new dispensation be rewarded with plum cabinet positions and impunity will “endelea”.

However if these two are on separate tickets then they can split the central Kenya / Rift valley votes and consequently loose honorably and remain silent until 2017;that will give us enough time to fully implement the constitution to a point that even if one of them is president in 2017 his hands will be tied by the law and order of constitutionalism. An opportunity has presented itself for the Progressive candidates to play realpolitik and seize the window of opportunity ,it does not knock twice-that is-if they pull together, and let Kenya have a truly new beginning ,are the progressives like ,Martha ,Peter K,Musyimi and ,Ole Kiyapi listening ?

KIbaki has already endorsed Raila

In his typical style Kibaki has already endorsed his co-principal aka RAO without as much as moving his lips, sounds crazy huh?My hypothesis is based on the fact that Kibaki is not one who speaks alot unless it is absolutely necessary or it involves marital matters such as denying a concubine, but that’s a story for another day.Being the proud man that he is I’m sure Tinga must have painstakingly persuaded him to rudisha mkono in a conversation that went something like this,RAO”mbona wewe apana weza sema mimi tosa kama vile nili kufanyia 2002?” then gen Kibs says “wewe wacha ,kwani uri sema tosha dio mimi ni seme wewe tosha au ni kwa sababu urijua huwezi pata ,bure tu” ,RAO” lakini kama si mimi si Ouru angekua ana lala state house?” gen Kibs “ok ok nta sema wewe tosha lakini sita sema kwa maneno , kitu nta fanya nta kataa kumu support kijana wa sigara alafu wewe uta pata easy time au sio?” RAO “sawa hio pana mbaya ,kwa hivyo kwa kuto sema uhuru tosha una maanisha mimi tosha si ndio?” Gen Kibs “si semi kitu ,had you been to makerere and London school of business haunge uliza hio” LOL.