Why and how the Jubilee will disintegrate

I will start by confessing that I’m one avid movie fan and not even Hollywood and bollywood combined can quench my thirst for a good story. One of my favorite all time movies is “Lord of the Rings” in a nut shell the story line is about a special ring whose holder suddenly gets supernatural powers and it is for this reason that it must be kept away from evil men who can use it for their evil schemes. There are many villains in the movie who must not get a hold of the ring but besides them are good people who believe they want the ring so they can do good but only until they get a hold of it do they realize what they are really capable of, perhaps worse than the evil men. To cut a long story short, this analogy reminds me of the coveted “house on the hill” which aptly represents the ring, the number of evil men after it are many and so are some good ones, at least on the surface. The desire to be the ring holder is very strong beyond imagination and when anyone gets close to getting it, that desire brings out the worst in the best of men.

The jubilee alliance was built on quicksand and if what we read in the daily news is anything to go by then it will surely crumble before March 4th 2013.Uhuru Kenyatta might have very well out of desperation and desire to meet the dec 4th deadline accepted to concede the coveted seat to his peer and DPM counterpart Musalia Mudadavadi but after sleeping on it and consulting widely he realized that this thing is too good to just throw in the towel. That my friends is the reason why the NDC was cancelled and no amount of spin can change that fact.UK is not stupid, ill give him that; he knows darn well that once he is seen to cower from the two horse race then his political career will be over like salt in water .He knows that he will be reduced to contest a mere MP's seat after posturing like the president in waiting for the last 10 or so months. He knows that ambitious leaders in his back yard are baying for his political blood and pounce they will. I’m sure the good DPM also understands that TNA which is barely 1year old will be just another one of the many political parties in
In Central his clout will be diminished because settling for a position that is not even guaranteed like that of a leader of majority is too risky ,besides this is a man who was once Leader of opposition, a position that at one time was held by none other than the great general himself . Once Uhuru is out of the statehouse race TNA can no longer hope to win all parliamentary seats in Mt Kenya, parties like GNU and Mbas will have a field day receiving disgruntled defectors from TNA .Not having a presidential candidate will also result in a very low voter turnout in this region.Mr Kenyatta understands this facts and that is why we should expect a 360 degree about turn come “super” Tuesday.

Mr “Johhny come late” aka Mudavadi ,can not just move in to a homestead that has already been built and expect to sleep in the master bedroom with the bride or can he? Uhuruto have invested billions of shillings and plenty of man hours in this thing and they are not about to incur major losses, both are astute businessmen. My hunch is these two not-so gentle men would rather loose the executive wing of government all-together but maintain a strong footing in parliament than risk loosing both. Long knives are already sharpened and ready to finish Mr. Kenyatta, politically that is , as soon as he “steps down” from the battle. Another question is can Musalia have the international clout and acumen to bring the ICC cases back to Kenya especially having a deputy who is a suspect in the same court?

Why Mudavadi can not beat Uhuru in a free Nomination Process.

The season of serious politico is here and the gloves are officially off ,foes have embraced each other in the un-holiest of unions and some are running around like headless chicken. Alliance is the new catch phrase and if I count the number of times I have heard that word and someone offered me a penny for every instance, I would probably have retired by now. Back to matters politics ,we now know that the two horse race that RAO spoke of is coming to pass and the major antagonists are jubilee alliance and the CORD .One Mr Musalia Mudavadi has been promised a free pass nomination or so he thinks ,if this happens then we will have another go-lucky, easy going, likable uncle sort of a fence sitting president .The man has never started anything on his own ,he first jumped in to politics when he was elected in mlolongo elections unopposed riding on the crest of his late father ,appointed as minister at a mere twenty seven he has no public service record to write home about.Some have opined that there will be free and fair nominations in the jubilee alliance to pick the flag bearer and Mudavadis men would like us to believe that he can actually beat UK fair and square. I'm not a fan of math but Mudavadi does not  have the numbers to beat Uhuru ,it is that simple .Look at the regional point men and women in the alliance and ask your self who are they aligned with?,delegates come to Kasarani (read-Kisirani) to endorse decisions that have already been made ,money is poured before they board that bus to Nairobi and they understand the consequences of voting against the party owners wishes. For starters the largest number of delegates will be from RV which which will carry 720 delegates(each party 20 delegates from 12counties) ,next will be NE with 420 ,then Eastern ,Central and Nyanza will tie at 360 each ,then Western and Coast at 300each and lastly Nairobi at 20.Care fully look at this numbers and evaluate Mudavadi and UK then analyze how much work/investment   they have put to popularize themselves in these counties or regions ,look at the Point-men/women and who they are likely to align with because let us face it this is a matter of “money or the box?”.

In a truly free and fair nomination Musalia stands a snowball chance in hell to beat UK and the only way he can become the jubilee flag bearer is by UK handing it to him in a silver platter(something he is no stranger to).By doing this CORD will get a life line and declare him a state house project until that tag sticks and we all know how projects end if 2002 is anything to go by.On the flip side if UK’s arrogance prevails then the ICC stick will be ready to subdue him back to farming or whatever it is he likes to do in Gatundu. Either way the Jubilee nomination goes on the 18 of Dec,CORD will find a strong message to convince Kenyans why not to Vote for jubilee puppets or crimes against humanity suspects.Lastly if Mudavadi carries the day and bags the jubilee flag then naturally the big question will not be how he won but rather , whose project is he? , Uhuru’s project? Or Kibaki’s Project? That will be the billion dollar question.